從根本性的錯、邏輯思路錯誤來攻擊，不要背離其邏輯思路而天馬行空鑽牛角尖、顯得小家子氣

1. Should Nature's Way open a store in Plainesville? 3. Hiring new law school graduates 6. A jazz club for Monroe

1. Should Nature's Way open a store in Plainesville?

The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products. "Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."

 

分析

作者以三個論據企圖證明 P 的居民符合假設裡的 highly concerned with leading healthy lives，而主張應該在 P 設立分店

• 主張： NW should build a new store in P
• 假設： Their sotres are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives.
• 論據： How can we say that residents of P are highly concerned with leading healthy lives?
  • sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs
  • the local health club has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full
  • P's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program

論證

攻擊論據

那些論據並無法說明「P 的居民是對健康生活高度關注」，總的來說，就是從「動機」攻擊

• 慢跑鞋、運動服裝的大賣不必然和喜歡運動有關 (可能只是流行趨勢：運動風)，也就不必然是因為對健康生活高度關注

  就算當地居民喜歡運動好了，也不必然是因為對健康生活高度關注 (而只是因為當地某幾項運動特別發達，比賽常得獎)

• 當地健身俱樂部會員比任何時候多，並不代表其會員數佔了居民總數的大半，搞不好就只是少數居民，不具代表性

  就算真佔了大多數好了，俱樂部的會員去俱樂部的目的也不必然是因為對健康生活高度關注 (可能是去釣馬子 (講好聽點：社交)、跟流行)

  再針對所提的減肥訓練和有氧運動課程的爆滿，其實也不必然是因為對健康生活高度關注 (可能就只是想減肥，並不是在乎健康，賣減肥藥可能比較有銷路，健康食品？ 哈)

• 學童的那個專案計畫可以算是跟健康生活有關係，但並不表示是因為居民對健康生活高度關注 (可能是因為州的法規所定、或只是當局者的個人喜好)
• 就算上面的論據都是跟「居民對健康生活高度關注」有關，有可能也只是一陣熱潮所造成的現象，並不足以說明居民是真心對健康生活有「持續的」高度關注

  (若僅是一陣熱潮，貿然決定設立分店很危險)

攻擊假設

不一定居民對健康生活高度關注，NW 去開店就能賺錢 (就算上面論據都是因為居民對健康生活高度關注，NW 也不一定就能賺錢)

• 居民不一定喜歡透過「健康食品」、「健康器材」的方式來促進健康
• 就算居民喜歡透過那樣的方式促進健康，NW 在 P 也可能會遭遇強大競爭者，居民不一定非買 NW 的產品不可
• P 的房價高、開店成本高、居民消費力低、居民人口數不多，就算居民對健康生活高度關注，NW 還是無法獲利

 

結尾

• 要提供「P 的居民是對健康生活高度關注」更明確的證據，

  做調查證明「慢跑鞋、運動服裝大賣」、「健身俱樂部會員增加」、「學童專案計畫」與「P 的居民對健康生活高度關注」有直接關係：

  訪問消費者的購買動機、會員的加入動機，調查居民對該專案的喜好

• 要能確立無其他條件干擾，確認能獲利
• 沒有經過更審慎的評估，貿然設立分店，不能確保獲利，很危險

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3. Hiring new law school graduates

The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis. "In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction. This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work."

 

分析

• 主張： The large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and less working hours.
• 假設：
  • Law school graduates choose the smaller firms because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms.
  • 隱藏假設： large firms need these graduates
• 論據：
  • work for large, corporate firms 15%↓ ； took job at small, general practice firms ↗
  • a survey of freshmen at a leading law school: job satisfaction > high salary

 

論證

攻擊論據

小型事務所真的是眾望所歸？

• 進到大型事務所的比例下降 15%，進到小型事務所的人數增加，並不代表小型事務所就已變成畢業生喜好的主流

  進到大型事務所下降 15%，可能從 1000 人變成 850 人，進到小型事務所可能從 10 人「增加到」 50 人

  這樣看起來，主流還是大型事務所啊...

• 就算小型事務所真的是畢業生去向的主流，法律系畢業生進到大型事務所的比例下降了，並不代表他們不喜歡大型事務所

  ex: 大型事務所更複雜了、事務更整合了，需要的有經驗的老手而不是剛畢業的新手

  所以一堆畢業生只能屈就小型事務所，致使進到小型事務所的人數增加了

• 另外，一年級新生的調查並無法代表畢業生的喜好，這項調查的結論： "job satisfaction > high salary" 沒法拿來說明此一數量改變的原因

  畢業生可能並不是那麼想，只是因為進不到大型事務所才導致這樣的數量變化

  再者，一年級新生的想法也可能再改變，等到要畢業時可能又不這麼想了...

攻擊假設

"job satisfaction" 是什麼？ 大型事務所就一定需要這些畢業生嗎？

• 就算大家真的都因為 "job satisfaction > high salary" 所以想進到小型事務所好了，那他們所要的 "job satisfcation" 又是什麼？

  真的就是文中主張的 more benefits and incentives and less working hours？ (或許是「肩負責任的大小」？ 「工作成就感」？ 「能否學到東西」？「系統體制」？)

• 就算那些就是他們所要的 "job satisfcation" 好了，其實還有一個最重要的問題： 大型事務所真的需要這些畢業生嗎？

  或許他們並不需要這些畢業生新手，而是一些經驗老到的老手，而這些老手可能就是看錢做事，那麼大型事務所要作的就只是提供高薪囉！ :P

 

結論

• 要證實數量增減的幅度，確定畢業生選擇小型事務所的真正原因 (ex: 問問那些進到小型事務所的畢業生是否真的 "job satisfaction > high salary"？)
• 要調查 "job satisfaction" 是些什麼...
• 要調查大型事務所需要的人手條件...

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6. A jazz club for Monroe

The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe. "A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."

 

分析

• 主張： A jazz club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise.
• 假設：
  • It would have the local market.
  • Jazz is extremely popular in Monroe.
  • Typical jazz fan spends close to $1000 per year on jazz entertainment.
• 論據：
  • local market: the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away.
  • popular: over 100000 people attend Monroe's jazz festival, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, the highest-rated radio program airs every weeknight.
  • spend $1000 per year: nationwide study

 

論證

攻擊論據

• 參加 jazz festival 的人雖然很多也可能都是外地觀光客一年一度來朝聖，並非無時無刻都有這麼多人會來參與
• jazz musician 居住當地可能僅是因為當地適合居住，而非因為當地居民都喜歡 jazz
• radio program 也可能與 jazz club 形成競爭關係，大家都在自家聽「免費」 radio 辦 party，無須至 club
• 因此，最近的 jazz club 有 65 miles 遠，也可能代表 N 不盛行 jazz，若真盛行當地應早就有一堆 club，或許所謂 local market 並不存在
• nationwide study 並不能代表當地

攻擊假設

• 就算該 nationwide study 結果能普及各地包括 N，但其前提為 jazz fun，上述論據仍無法證實該地有許多 jazz fan，該 club 未必能因此獲利

 

結論

• 要有當地居民參加 jazz festival 佔總參加人口之比重以證實當地居民喜歡 jazz
• 要調查當地居民是否願意付錢到 club 聽 live，還是寧願聽免費的 radio
• 要詢問居住當地的 jazz musician 居住該地之原因

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